Smooth replacement, but also not to be disturbed As a company that has studied the information of the industrial chain for many years, the forecast of IHS is not particularly accurate, but it has certain reference significance for the industry. Recently, IHS forecasted the current popular OLED and LCD TV panels. According to IHS statistics, since the 55-inch OLED TVs first appeared on the market in the first quarter of 2015, the manufacturing cost of 55-inch OLED panels has dropped by 55%, and the spread of the same-size LCD panel has been reduced to 2.5 times. By the second quarter of 2017, the production cost of 55-inch OLED panels has dropped to 582 US dollars. From this point of view, the price of OLED TV panels can be close to the high-end crowd from the ridiculously high level, which is a good progress. This is in line with the current market conditions. Sony has achieved a good return on OLED TVs, and Skyworth is also working hard. Their common goal is a relatively high-end middle class. OLED TV is still a choice for the middle class However, if you want to replace the current mainstream technology of LCD, it is possible that the OLED camp will need to spend a lot of thought. After all, substitution is a broader concept, not a small part of the market changes. From the current situation, high-end 4K LCD TVs are still the mainstream of the market, which is difficult to change in the short term. After all, for the next time, OLED panels want to cut their prices and may need to spend several times their previous energy. In two and a half years, the price has fallen by 55%. If you want to reduce it by half, I am afraid that there are more problems to be overcome. IHS estimates that by the first quarter of 2021, the price of 55-inch OLED panels will further drop to 242 US dollars. If the production cost of LCD panels of the same size is still maintained at around US$200, OLED TVs and LCD TVs will be The spread will be quite limited. Under normal circumstances, the price difference is within 1.2 times, and the substitution effect will play a role. Jimmy Kim, chief analyst of display materials at IHS, believes that historical experience shows that whenever the price difference between new technology and mainstream technology at the time is reduced, it is the time for new technology applications to take off. Therefore, as the production cost gap between OLED panels and LCD panels is getting smaller and smaller, the popularity of OLED TVs in the market is expected to increase substantially. Although this is a trend analysis, for the OLED camp, even as IHS predicts, it may take more than three and a half years to wait. Three and a half years in technology, this is the biggest risk. After all, today's technology is changing with each passing day. Although technology needs precipitation to accumulate, it cannot guarantee that liquid crystal technology will not improve during the past three and a half years, other technologies will not intervene, and the problems of OLED technology will certainly be overcome. First of all, from the development of liquid crystal technology to the present, although major changes are not always frequent, minor improvements and enhancements are commonplace. There has not been a three-and-a-half year gap before now: the lack of LCD technology in three and a half years. Has not happened yet. This is a challenge for the OLED camp. After all, the largest TV giant Samsung and China's first-line brands, the construction of the LCD industry chain is also relatively complete TCL, Quantum dot LCD technology supporters, their energy can not be underestimated. Although QLED is in its infancy, it can hardly be said whether it can rise to the advanced stage of electroluminescence in three and a half years. Will you take the opportunity to attack? Secondly, Hisense builds a laser in the space that eats OLEDs. Due to technical issues, the advantages of Hisense lasers on 85-inch and larger screens have been established. It is understood that Hisense will launch larger-screen laser televisions with more than 100 inches, which undoubtedly directly cut off the space of the OLED screens. Bring OLEDs to compete directly in the hinterland of LCD. If the technology is mature, whether the laser will expand further below 85 inches is a potential threat. The laser momentum is also very fierce Finally, Samsung has been fighting back against LGD's OLEDs, focusing on burning the screen. Sony's product descriptions, including Apple’s recent explanation of the "normal phenomenon of burning screens" for the iPhone X, and Apple's possible release of the LCD version of the iPhone X next year, have confirmed the OLED burning screen. Whether this hardship can be resolved within three and a half years, it is estimated that LGD has not fully grasped. Therefore, under the background of LCD technology not progressing, and other technologies not intervening, OLED panels still need to overcome their own problems and achieve a target of more than half of the cost reduction within three and a half years, which is a bit of pressure. Personally think that if OLED technology wants to change the current situation, it is unrealistic to count on others not to progress or not to intervene. They have to hurry themselves and introduce more allied forces. The technology is always a monopoly, and the most disadvantage is the companion of the industry chain. . Heavy-duty connectors are designed to withstand the harshest and most demanding industrial environments, and are tougher, stronger, and more resistant than conventional connectors. 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OLED TVs have to continue to cut prices for nearly four years in order to pose a substantial challenge for LCD
In recent years, OLED TVs have been replacing the sound of LCD TVs for a long time. However, as an upstream monopolistic technology, if you want to replace it, you must first loosen the panel price, but this process will be a bit long. From the beginning to the present, if the price of 55-inch OLED TV panels dropped by 55%, it would be estimated that it would take nearly four years to get close to the price of LCD panels of the same size. The process is slow, whether there is a new trend in LCD technology, and whether other technologies, such as lasers, will take the opportunity to emerge. This is the biggest uncertainty of OLEDs.