GGII: Data interpretation of crazy filament lights

When the seat was added to the third time, the people in the venue seemed to feel that the heat was rising.

"I haven't seen such a hot LED conference for a long time. I came early, still sitting in the last few rows, almost just standing in the aisle." Recalling April 26 The hot-spot light lamp special seminar at the day, a person who participated in the LED packaging business is still memorable.

The fiery and madness of the filament lamp can be clearly seen from the ten sets of data from the High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII).

In 2015, global LED lighting entered a low growth channel. GGII statistics show that the global LED lighting market reached 309.9 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9%. In the previous 2010-2015, the annual global compound growth rate (CAGR) of the global LED lighting market was as high as 32.8%. The GGII estimates that the global LED lighting market will have a CAGR of only 5.1% from 2015 to 2020.

At the same time that global LED lighting enters the low-growth channel, the LED filament lamp has sprung up and become the most brilliant star in the night sky.

“In 2015, the global LED filament lamp market demand reached 70 million. It is expected that the global LED filament lamp demand will reach 220 million in 2016, an increase of 367% year-on-year.” GGII senior analyst Li Shengfa believes that the next three years As the automated production of LED filament lamps increases, production will rise rapidly.

Source: GGII

According to the average selling price, in 2015, the global LED filament lamp market reached 1.19 billion yuan. GGII expects that the global LED filament lamp market will reach 2.9 billion yuan in 2016. The year-on-year growth was 294%. The mature LED filament lamp market will remain at around 8 billion yuan.

Source: GGII

The filigree lamp is hot, and the reason can be seen from its higher gross profit margin. According to customs data, in 2015, the average export price of LED bulbs was 11.5 yuan per unit, down 39% year-on-year; in 2015, the average price of LED filament lamps was 17.5 yuan per unit. The average export price of LED filament lamps is higher than the average export price of LED bulbs by 52%.

E-commerce data also shows that the price of the same brand LED filament lamp is 25%-300% higher than the price of LED bulb lamp.

Such a high price, rich profits naturally attracted many LED companies to enter the filament lamp market. The demand for filament lamps in the market is also growing.

GGII expects that the global LED bulb demand CAGR will be only 11% in the next five years. The global LED filament lamp demand CAGR is as high as 70%.

By 2020, the demand for LED filament lamp growth will be close to that of LED bulbs, and the replacement of LED bulbs will be saturated. At that time, the demand for LED filament lamps is expected to reach 25% of the demand for LED bulbs.

The filament lamp has at least five years of good light.

At present, filament lamps are mainly used for export, and the market is mainly distributed in Germany, Italy, France, Denmark, Brazil and other places. In 2015, the export value of the top five destination countries in the export market accounted for 54%. At present, China's LED filament lamps are mainly exported to OEM international brands, supplemented by the export of a few companies' own brands. According to customs statistics, in 2015, China's LED filament lamps accounted for 79.8% of branded products, the top ten brands accounted for 55%, and unbranded filament lamps accounted for 11.1%.

If the filament lamp really wants to enter the market, the cost reduction is the inevitable road, and automated production has been put on the agenda. LED filament lamp production should combine the packaging system with the sealing line. It needs two core technology thresholds, such as sealing, inflation technology and filament spot welding technology. The automatic production level is low and the finished product yield is low. According to GGII statistics, in 2015 China's LED filament lamp production has a full (semi) degree of automation of only 15% and a comprehensive yield of 90%. In 2017, the production automation of LED filament lamps will increase rapidly to 50%, and the overall yield will exceed 95%.

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